WORKING PAPERS AND DRAFTS

“Is China Fudging Its Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data.” Revise and resubmit, China Economic Review.  (With E. Hsu and M. Spiegel).

“Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?”  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series 2016-18, 2016.

“Okun’s Macroscope and the Changing Cyclicality of Underlying Margins of Adjustment.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series 2013-32, 2013. (With M. Daly, Ò. Jordà, and F. Nechio.)

“A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series 2012-19, 2012.

“Sector-Specific Technical Change.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 2013. (With S. Basu, J. Fisher, and M. Kimball.) 

“Technology Shocks in a Two-Sector DSGE Model.”  Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 2012. (With S. Basu and Z. Liu.)

Aggregate Production Function Failures and Business Cycle Analysis.” Manuscript, October 1996. (With S. Basu and M.T.K. Horvath.)




PUBLICATIONS BY TOPIC


Productivity and Macroeconomics

"Is there an easy cure for low growth?" Business Economics (2017) 52:175–180.

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009.”  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.  Spring 2017, pp. 1-58. (With R. Hall, J. Stock, and M. Watson)

Why has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?Annual Reviews of Economics Vol. 8, 2016: pp. 465-496. (With C. Wang.)

The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth.” Forthcoming in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth,” Valerie Ramey and Charles Hulten, editors, 2016. (With C. Bosler, M. Daly, and B. Hobijn.)

The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity Growth.European Economic Review Vol. 88(C), September 2016: pp. 3-20. (With G. Cette and B. Mojon).

Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Vol. 47, Spring 2016: pp. 109-182. (With D. Byrne and M. Reinsdorf).

Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession.”  NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014 Vol. 29(1), 2015: pp. 1-51.

 “Labour Markets inthe Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.”  National Institute Economic Review Vol. 228(1), May 2014: pp. 58-64.  (With M. Daly, Ò. Jordà, and F. Nechio.)

A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output.” NBER Chapters in Price Index Concepts and Measurement, 2009: pp. 173-320. Erwin Diewert, John Greenlees and Charles Hulten, editors. (With S. Basu and J. Wang.)

“WhatDo We Know (and Not Know) about Potential Output?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July 2009: pp. 187-214. (With S. Basu.)

Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions, and Contractionary Technology Improvements.” Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 54(8), November 2007: pp. 2467-2485.

“Information and Communications Technology as a General Purpose Technology: Evidence fromU.S. Industry Data.” German Economic Review Vol. 8, 2007 special issue on information technology: pp. 146-173. Reprinted in Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 2008: pp. 1-15. (With S. Basu.) 

Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?” American Economic Review Vol. 96(5), December 2006: pp. 1418-1448. (With S. Basu and M.S. Kimball.) 

“The Acceleration in U.S. Total Productivity after 1995: the Role of Information Technology.”  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 2004: pp. 52-67. (With S. Ramnath.)

The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom?NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 Vol. 18, 2004: pp. 9-82. (With S. Basu, N. Oulton, and S. Srinivasan.)

Aggregate Productivity and Aggregate Technology.European Economic Review Vol. 46(6), June 2002: pp. 963-991. (With S. Basu.) 

A Discussion of Productivity Growth and Technology.” Chapter in Technology, Growth and the Labor Market, edited by Donna K. Ginther and Madeline Zavodny, Foley L.H.  Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2003.

Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Vol. 55(1), December 2001: pp. 117-165. (With S. Basu and M. Shapiro.)

Why Is Productivity Procyclical?  Why Do We Care?” NBER chapters in New Developments in Productivity Analysis, 2001: pp. 225-302. Edwin Dean, Michael Harper and Charles Hulten editors. (With S. Basu.)

Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications.” Journal of Political Economy Vol. 105(2), April 1997: pp. 249-283. (With S. Basu.)

Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 36(1), August 1995: pp. 165-188. (With S. Basu.)

International Finance and Asian Economies

 “Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model.”  Journal of International Money and Finance Vol. 49, 2014: pp. 83-103. (With M. Spiegel and E. Swanson.)

Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore.”  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Vol. 3(2), April 2011: pp. 29-74. (With B. Neiman.) 

“Flying Geese or Sitting Ducks: China's Impact on the Trading Fortunes of Other Asian Economies.” In China and Asia: Economic and Financial Interactions, edited by Yin-wong Cheung and Kar-yiu Wong. Routledge Studies in the Modern World Economy, 2009. (With A. Ahearne, P. Loungani, and J. Schindler.)

“China and Emerging Asia: Comrades or Competitors?” Seoul Journal of Economics Vol. 16(2), 2003. (With A. Ahearne, P. Loungani, and J. Schindler.)

“Puzzles in the Chinese Stock Market.” Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 84(3), August 2002: pp. 416-432. (With J.H. Rogers.)

“Countering Contagion: Does China’s Experience Offer a Blueprint?” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 2001: pp. 38-52. (With A. Ahearne and P. Loungani.)

“Was China the First Domino? Assessing the Links between China and Other Asian Economies.”  Journal of International Money and Finance Vol. 18(4), August 1999: pp. 515-535. (With H. J. Edison and P. Loungani.)

“Why Has China Survived the Asian Crisis So Well?  What Risks Remain?” In Financial Market Reform in China: Progress, Problems, and Prospects, edited by Baizhu Chen, J. Kimball Dietrich, and Yi Feng. Westview Press, 2000. (With O.D. Babson.)

 

Economic Growth and Infrastructure

The Future of U.S. Economic Growth.American Economic Review Vol. 104(5), May 2014: pp. 44-49. (With C. Jones.)

Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity.American Economic Review Vol. 89(3), June 1999: pp. 619-638.

Textbook

Solutions Manual for Mankiw's Macroeconomics. First through sixth editions, 1992 through 2006. (First and second editions with Paula DeMasi. Third edition with Jason Furman.)


BOOK REVIEWS

“Paradox resolved? A review of the Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert J. Gordon.” Business Economics (2017) 52: 265-267.

“Cyclical Downturn or Slowing Trend? A Review Article on Productivity Puzzles across Europe.” International Productivity Monitor, Spring 2018.

FEDERAL RESERVE ECONOMIC LETTERS

"Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?" FRBSF Economic Letter 2017-18, June 26, 2017 (With T. Mertens and P. Shultz.)

“Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2017-04, February 13, 2017 (With D. Byrne and M. Reinsdorf.)

“What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-30, October 11, 2016.

“The Recent Rise and Fall of Rapid Productivity Growth.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-04, February 9, 2015. (With B. Wang.)

“Interpreting Deviations from Okun’s Law.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-12, 2014. (With M. Daly, Ò. Jordà, and F. Nechio.)

“Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2013-38, December 23, 2013. (With M. Daly, Ò. Jordà, and F. Nechio.)

“On the Reliability of Chinese Output Figures.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2013-08, March 25, 2013. (With I. Malkin and M. Spiegel.)

 “What Is the Value of Bank Output?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-15, May 16, 2011. (With T. Alon, R. Inklaar, and C. Wang.)

“Growth Accounting, Potential Output, and the Current Recession.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-26, August 17, 2009. (With K. Matoba.)

“Will Fast Productivity Growth Persist?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2007-09, April 6, 2007. (With D. Thipphavong and B. Trehan.)

“Financial Innovations and the Real Economy: Conference Summary.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2007-05, March 2, 2007. (With M. Doms and J. Lopez.)

“Is a Recession Imminent?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2006-32, November 24, 2006. (With B. Trehan.)

“Shifting Data: A Challenge for Monetary Policymakers.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2005-35, December 9, 2005. (With S. Wang.)

“Why Hasn't the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2005-31, November 18, 2005. (With B. Trehan.)

“Comrades or Competitors? On Trade Relationships between China and Emerging Asia.” Chicago Fed Letter, March 2004. (With P. Loungani.)

“Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Acceleration.” Chicago Fed Letter, September 2003. (With S. Ramnath.)

“The Fall and Rise of the Global Economy.” Chicago Fed Letter, April 2001. (With V. Greenfield.)